An Initial Look at a Potential Justin Upton Trade

The Pirates have consistently been named among the interested parties in a trade for Justin Upton. Though the team does not match up well with the Diamondbacks, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, and have had few conversations regarding Upton, as reported by Jim Bowden of ESPN, it doesn’t mean that a deal cannot be struck. However, it's not just who the Pirates would give up in any deal that needs to be considered prior to making any trade for Upton.

Though Upton is struggling (by his standards) on the field this year, hitting .273/.353/.401 and his park adjusted wOBA of .324 is slightly below average. His problem has been a strikeout increase (up to 22.4% from 18.7% last year) combined with a loss of power (his .128 ISO is well below his career rate of .201) – hitting a lot more groundballs this year (45.6 GB%) than in 2011 (36.9 GB%) and over his career (40.8 GB%). However, Upton has been worth 15.8 WAR over the course of his career so far and is still just 24, only turning 25 at the end of August, so will likely improve going forward (not just bouncing back from this year’s struggles).

The Diamondbacks are quite rightfully looking for a big return in any Upton deal, targeting Major Leaguers (or prospects that could be called up immediately). Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects states that an Upton trade is a move that a big market team would make, preferring to keep hold of years of control and affordability over a big splash. James Santelli uses his home/road splits to point to red flags over the potential acquisition as well as potential injury concerns (though the Pirates will at the very least review medical records prior to completing any trade). However, Upton is still one of the game’s best young players and is under team control through 2015, so the acquisition would represent a huge sign of progression.

Even though the Diamondbacks are reportedly looking for major league players in return for Upton, if the Pirates were to acquire him then any deal will likely include Jameson Taillon – so if the Pirates are able to sign Mark Appel prior to tomorrow’s deadline then the Pirates would have already replaced Taillon in the system (although it’s depth would be diminished). I fully understand the reservations of that people have in giving up prospects; though in the long term, these prospects will be replaced by either trading Upton away if the club fall out of contention in 2014 or 2015 or when Upton becomes a free agent via free agent compensation. As a team that trades for an impending free agent during the season will get zero compensation for that player over the winter (as the new CBA has added a rule that only players who spent an entire season will a single club are eligible for compensation picks – after a qualifying offer), I believe that the Pirates would be better off giving up prospects for a player like Upton rather than someone like Carlos Quentin – though the front office are unlikely to give up any prospects of significance for a rental player (effectively ruling out a Quentin trade right now).

Furthermore, prior to acquiring Upton management will have to consider the long term payroll structure. Frank Coonelly has stated in the past that the Pirates will be able to afford a $70M to $80M payroll “if our fans believe that we now have a group of players in Pittsburgh and on its way here in the near future that is competitive”. Coonelly’s premise was that the club needed to “take a meaningful step forward in terms of attendance to reach that payroll number while continuing to invest heavily in our future”, though the investment in prospects has essentially been capped since that interview. Looking solely at players with guaranteed contacts on the 40 man roster from 2013 onwards, the addition of Upton would mean that a considerable portion of the $50-55M payroll levels from the past couple of seasons would be taken up by just a few players:

	2013		2014		2015
A.J. Burnett	$8.000M
Clint Barmes	$5.500M
Jose Tabata	$1.167M		$3.167M		$4.167M
Andrew McCutchen	$4.708M		$7.458M		$10.208M
Justin Upton	$9.958M		$14.458M		$14.708M
	$29.333M		$25.083M		$29.083M

 

 

 

 

 

 

Obtaining Upton would mean other players will need to be traded away if payroll is kept at the current levels, as $25-30M of payroll would already be in use prior to any arbitration awards, though I doubt that the front office would want this competitive disadvantage. Therefore, by addition of Upton would symbolize Coonelly's commitment to payroll enhancement as they will be forced to in order to sustain success.

On a side note, an Upton trade would have further benefits. Over the winter, the Pirates front office had an interest in both Roy Oswalt and Edwin Jackson, however Oswalt elected to begin the year without a team rather than sign for the Bucs and Jackson chose to sign a one year deal with the Nationals instead of a three year deal with the Pirates. It was similar the year before with Jorge de la Rosa electing to head back to the Rockies on a deal that guaranteed him both less years and money. By acquiring Upton to add to Andrew McCutchen and the young core of players, combined with the progression shown on the field this year, Pittsburgh should instantly become an easier place to sell to free agents.

A trade for Upton will mean a lot more than acquiring an established middle-of-the-order bat, as the long term potential problems will have been considered before completing a trade for any player. With Upton that will mean a payroll increase – which really is more of a concern that the potential players that would be sent to the Diamondbacks, as failing to increase payroll will force the club to trade away arbitration eligible players (probably weakening the team overall in the process). Whether payroll will increase and a deal can be agreed remains to be seen, as does the long term ramifications of his performance on the field; nonetheless the Pirates will not have many opportunities to acquire a player like Justin Upton.