It’s repeatedly stated that Scott Boras’ aim is simply to get the best deal for his client. With major league free agents, he consistently gets his clients top dollar, such as the $36M three year contract that the Mets somehow thought was a good deal for Oliver Perez. However, when it comes to Mark Appel, Boras’ advice has most likely cost his client.
The Pirates offered Appel $3.8M – as much as they could without giving up a draft pick next year. Appel, on the other hand, wanted $6M - $563,500 less than the entire Pirates draft budget for the first ten rounds. It was always unlikely that the Pirates would give up their 2013 draft pick for any player, and this proved to be the case. I am surprised that Appel elected to turn down the offer and gambling on a higher pay day next year is a risky plan, as it would have given him the sixth highest bonus of the 2012 draft.
Only one player was given as much as a $6M signing bonus (Byron Buxton by the Twins) and only two teams could afford a $6M bonus without going over slot this year; so I would guess that the likelihood of Appel attaining that level next year is slim. It also has to be considered that the clubs picking the earliest in the draft will attempt to save some of their draft budget for later picks by offering below slot recommendation. Any injury (especially elbow or shoulder) will hurt his draft stock, which heightens the risk involved, and his bargaining position is lower as he will be a college senior – so does not have the leverage that he had this year over the Pirates.
The Pirates offered Appel $3.8M – as much as they could without giving up a draft pick next year. Appel, on the other hand, wanted $6M - $563,500 less than the entire Pirates draft budget for the first ten rounds. It was always unlikely that the Pirates would give up their 2013 draft pick for any player, and this proved to be the case. I am surprised that Appel elected to turn down the offer and gambling on a higher pay day next year is a risky plan, as it would have given him the sixth highest bonus of the 2012 draft.
Only one player was given as much as a $6M signing bonus (Byron Buxton by the Twins) and only two teams could afford a $6M bonus without going over slot this year; so I would guess that the likelihood of Appel attaining that level next year is slim. It also has to be considered that the clubs picking the earliest in the draft will attempt to save some of their draft budget for later picks by offering below slot recommendation. Any injury (especially elbow or shoulder) will hurt his draft stock, which heightens the risk involved, and his bargaining position is lower as he will be a college senior – so does not have the leverage that he had this year over the Pirates.
By returning to college, Appel will also effectively be pushing his progress to the major leagues back a year. If he was to sign with the Pirates, Appel would have most likely followed the same route that Gerrit Cole has (though he may have seen some time in the minor leagues this year). Therefore, that would have meant a trip to the Arizona Fall League this winter, beginning 2013 at high-A Bradenton prior to a move to Double-A Altoona over the summer. If all went to plan his estimated time of arrival in Pittsburgh would have been the summer of 2014 – though a September call up at the end of next season would not have been out of the question.
If Appel does make it to the majors in 2014 now he would have to sign soon after the draft and follow the Trevor Bauer route. Bauer is currently pitching in the major leagues, showing the benefit of signing early to Boras clients like Cole who waited until the deadline to agree deals. That said, unless the club that drafts Appel will give him exactly what is asked for after the draft, I believe that it will be dragged on until at least the deadline and probably after (as a college senior Appel will have until the following June to sign), as Boras clients rarely sign early. Appel would then likely have the same development plan as he would have if he had signed this year – so an estimated time of arrival in the majors of early-mid 2015. Furthermore, not only will his potential call-up will be delayed by a year, so will his further earning power throughout his career.
I’ve thought for a long time the Boras’ patient negotiation style more hinders rather than helps his amateur clients as it delays the start of their professional development and earning potential. The full extent will not be seen until Appel signs somewhere next year, depending on whether he can top the Pirates’ $3.8M offer; however at that point he should have been pitching in Altoona in any case. Overall, while Appel may top the $3.8M bonus that was offered by the Pirates, I don’t even consider the risk to be worthwhile even if he did manage to obtain a $6M signing bonus.
If Appel does make it to the majors in 2014 now he would have to sign soon after the draft and follow the Trevor Bauer route. Bauer is currently pitching in the major leagues, showing the benefit of signing early to Boras clients like Cole who waited until the deadline to agree deals. That said, unless the club that drafts Appel will give him exactly what is asked for after the draft, I believe that it will be dragged on until at least the deadline and probably after (as a college senior Appel will have until the following June to sign), as Boras clients rarely sign early. Appel would then likely have the same development plan as he would have if he had signed this year – so an estimated time of arrival in the majors of early-mid 2015. Furthermore, not only will his potential call-up will be delayed by a year, so will his further earning power throughout his career.
I’ve thought for a long time the Boras’ patient negotiation style more hinders rather than helps his amateur clients as it delays the start of their professional development and earning potential. The full extent will not be seen until Appel signs somewhere next year, depending on whether he can top the Pirates’ $3.8M offer; however at that point he should have been pitching in Altoona in any case. Overall, while Appel may top the $3.8M bonus that was offered by the Pirates, I don’t even consider the risk to be worthwhile even if he did manage to obtain a $6M signing bonus.
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