Sunderland's progress to the brink of survival

For the third consecutive year, Sunderland will enter its penultimate game of the season with the chance of securing survival. The relegation rollercoaster was quite swiftly reduced to two clubs from three as two of the Black Cats, arch-rivals Newcastle, and Norwich are going to join Aston Villa in the bottom three, as a thrilling 3-2 victory against Chelsea combined with Newcastle’s lacklustre draw at Villa leaves Sunderland on the brink of ending the relegation battle early.

For non-Sunderland fans, this is the status quo. Victory against Everton would mean that Sunderland have just survived for fourth consecutive seasons. The club somehow do it every year, turning into perennial relegation candidates who find a way to survive every season no matter how bleak the situation gets – if Sunderland have a chance of staying up, the club will find a way to do so. As a fan of the club, the miracle runs produce a rollercoaster of emotions between the lowest of lows and the highest of highs, and the Chelsea game produced both.

This season’s relegation battle feels different as Sunderland have actually made progress, to the point that some Premier League teams will be looking at its players if the Black Cats were to go down. Sam Allardyce has labelled the January transfer window as one of the best of his career, but there have been few – if any – better in the history of the football club. The squad was in need of yet another overhaul, as few summer signings had made an impact over the past few years, and building blocks are now in place. Out went the likes of Steven Fletcher, Danny Graham and Sebastian Coates, with the quartet of Lamine Kone, Jan Kirchhoff, Wahbi Khazri and Dame N’Doye joining the club – and only N’Doye has failed to make an impact.

Kone and Kirchhoff have solidified the defensive unit, as has Vito Mannone taking over from the departed Costel Pantilimon in goal. Through the end of January, Sunderland had conceded 46 goals at a rate of 2.00 per match, more than any other club in the division. Having the worse defensive record in the Premier League has been an ominous predictor for relegation, as only Fulham have survived in the Premier League with the league’s worst defensive record, conceding 60 goals in the 2006/07 season – although they were tied with Charlton in that campaign and the Addicks were relegated. Furthermore, Sunderland has also allowed 15.9 shots per match – as only Newcastle had conceded more (16.1). Since that date, Sunderland have conceded 14 goals in 13 games (1.08 per match), as their shots conceded per match average has also dropped to 12.9.

This defensive improvement has seen Sunderland’s shot ratios improve from what were among the lowest in the league. Its total shots ratio (TSR) was the second lowest in the division at the end of January, yet just five clubs had a higher TSR since, as their shots on target ratio has also improved from the league’s worst, although not to the same extent of its TSR.

Sunderland are on the verge of survival, and this time there are signs of progress rather than fortune as underlying metrics can back up the perspective that the club has improved since January, as the Black Cats have won three, lost three and drawn seven games over this spell. The next step is maintaining this to secure survival, preferably at the Stadium of Light on Wednesday night, before building on it in the summer. The side looked better in the 4-2-3-1 system in the second half of the Chelsea game, as the three-man midfield consisting of three defensive-minded options needed to be change for a number of games – having Cattermole as a team’s most advanced midfielder screams that the system needed to be altered, and Fabio Borini is a better fit in a central role.

Every club in the bottom half will be looking to emulate Leicester next season, but that’s a fantasy world that may not be seen for a long time – the most likely winners will be bookmakers, with more fans taking the impossible odds to capitalise on that dream. However, after the annual relegation dogfight, a lot can be said about mid-table anonymity, and that should become the immediate aim following confirmation of survival.

Survival is, of course, the first step, and Sunderland have failed to build on it over recent seasons. Given the way that this season has progressed throughout the division, avoiding relegation shouldn’t be assumed at this point, as bigger shocks have occurred in the Premier League this term.