At the beginning of June, Jayson Stark reported that the Pirates would approach the trade deadline in the same way that they approached it last year. This means that the front office will be looking to add while not really giving up much in return. However, I believe that the Bucs should take on a dual role and be both buyers and sellers this year.
A winning record is a viable goal for the Pirates this year and they are a better team than they were last year while the NL Central is a weaker division. In one of my earliest posts on this on this blog, I stated that by aiming for a winning record the Pirates could end up in a playoff race, and with a little luck and that could be the case this year. The Pirates need offense – that is clear. They have a league worst .283 wOBA and have struggled to get players on-base (a team .283 OBP) and score runs (222 runs scored) all season. Unsurprisingly, early rumours have the Bucs linked with hitters like Kevin Youkilis, Chase Headley and Bryan LaHair – players who have shown that they can walk a lot over the course of their careers. Each one of these players would boost the offense. The problem is whether the Pirates are able to take on salary (Youkilis) or give up the prospects (Headley) to make these deals.
GM Neal Huntington has stated recently that “[y]ou can't buy when people aren't selling” and yesterday he said that “[i]t's an obvious trade market: It's nonexistent”. Manager Clint Hurdle has also weighed in, stating that “[t]here is no traction anywhere”. Whereas I don’t believe that the market is completely dead, part of the problem (though not the main problem, more of a contributing factor) is the extra Wild Card spot in each league has meant fewer sellers as there are more teams in contention; however that doesn’t mean that there are no teams selling right now. In the NL Central alone the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs are known sellers. I think the main problem right now will be the price to acquire a player as there are many more buyers than sellers, hence why very few moves have been made thus far, and I believe that teams would have held similar valuations of these players had there been just one wild card spot available in each league. There is very little reason for a team to lower their valuable on a player at this point in the summer – so rather than there being a nonexistent market, it’s the demands of the selling clubs that has turned the market this way. At the same time, it’s also important that the Pirates do not overvalue their own prospects as that would have the same effect as other teams overpricing their own players.
The Pirates should also be looking to trade away from an area of strength – and that would be the bullpen, specifically Joel Hanrahan. Bob Cohn and Rob Biertempfel have reported that it would take an offer that “the club absolutely could not refuse” to move the closer, however I believe that stronger consideration should be given to trade Hanrahan as the window of opportunity to receive adequate compensation is closing – due to the new collective bargaining agreement. The rules regarding draft pick compensation changed over the winter. Rather than having Type A and Type B free agents, depending on their ranking by the Elias Sports Bureau, a team will only be able to receive compensation for a free agent if they make their former player an offer at least equal to the average of the 125 richest contracts. Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLB Trade Rumors estimates that the qualifying offers to fall in the £12-13MM range. This is another section of the new CBA that hinders the Pirates, as they will not be able to make many, if any, qualifying offers, and certainly not any to a closer, whereas richer teams may feel that it’s a risk worth taking.
This new rule will affect the market with most players in the final year of their deals – a handful of players would be worth qualifying offers but it would me a risky strategy to attempt to gain draft pick compensation on players who really were not worth the price tag (like with the amateur draft, I hope that draft pick compensation is reviewed with the next CBA – it’s not the principle that is the issue, I would just like to see a tiered system like Type A and Type B free agents, giving small market teams a better opportunity to receive compensatory draft picks as they are more likely to make lower qualifying offers). Teams were more willing to give up better prospects under the old system as they had the knowledge that they would receive a compensatory draft pick (or picks) if they were unable to re-sign the player. Given that the number of players that could receive draft pick compensation will reduce, I believe that the potential prospect haul that a team could receive will also be reduced if the player is in the final year of his contract. With a year and a half to go prior to hitting free agency, the potential return for Hanrahan will dwindle if he’s not moved this summer. That, combined with a likely $7.5MM salary through arbitration, which is really too high for the Pirates to be spending on a reliever, means that the optimal time to trade Hanrahan would be now, regardless of the record – especially when the Pirates already have potential replacements in-house to take over the closers role.
Trading away an important member of the roster may not be popular and is counter to aiming for a winning record; however it is something that should be considered. Hanrahan is one of the more valuable and tradable players on the roster right now (his value is boosted due to being a proven closer) as the Pirates do have alternatives in the bullpen to close out games. As a small market team, holding onto Hanrahan will hurt in the long run, as the Pirates could eventually receive nothing for him. If the front office makes similar acquisitions to last year, when Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick were acquired for very little in terms of prospects, a Hanrahan trade would allow the team to improve the system while the trades that were made would improve the team overall. If they decide to be more aggressive this year (which I believe that they should), then a Hanrahan trade could replace departed prospects or even be used to acquire other players. Nonetheless, whichever approach that Pirates management takes to acquiring players prior to the trade deadline this summer, I hope that further consideration is given to moving Hanrahan so that the Bucs can receive maximum value for their closer.
A winning record is a viable goal for the Pirates this year and they are a better team than they were last year while the NL Central is a weaker division. In one of my earliest posts on this on this blog, I stated that by aiming for a winning record the Pirates could end up in a playoff race, and with a little luck and that could be the case this year. The Pirates need offense – that is clear. They have a league worst .283 wOBA and have struggled to get players on-base (a team .283 OBP) and score runs (222 runs scored) all season. Unsurprisingly, early rumours have the Bucs linked with hitters like Kevin Youkilis, Chase Headley and Bryan LaHair – players who have shown that they can walk a lot over the course of their careers. Each one of these players would boost the offense. The problem is whether the Pirates are able to take on salary (Youkilis) or give up the prospects (Headley) to make these deals.
GM Neal Huntington has stated recently that “[y]ou can't buy when people aren't selling” and yesterday he said that “[i]t's an obvious trade market: It's nonexistent”. Manager Clint Hurdle has also weighed in, stating that “[t]here is no traction anywhere”. Whereas I don’t believe that the market is completely dead, part of the problem (though not the main problem, more of a contributing factor) is the extra Wild Card spot in each league has meant fewer sellers as there are more teams in contention; however that doesn’t mean that there are no teams selling right now. In the NL Central alone the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs are known sellers. I think the main problem right now will be the price to acquire a player as there are many more buyers than sellers, hence why very few moves have been made thus far, and I believe that teams would have held similar valuations of these players had there been just one wild card spot available in each league. There is very little reason for a team to lower their valuable on a player at this point in the summer – so rather than there being a nonexistent market, it’s the demands of the selling clubs that has turned the market this way. At the same time, it’s also important that the Pirates do not overvalue their own prospects as that would have the same effect as other teams overpricing their own players.
The Pirates should also be looking to trade away from an area of strength – and that would be the bullpen, specifically Joel Hanrahan. Bob Cohn and Rob Biertempfel have reported that it would take an offer that “the club absolutely could not refuse” to move the closer, however I believe that stronger consideration should be given to trade Hanrahan as the window of opportunity to receive adequate compensation is closing – due to the new collective bargaining agreement. The rules regarding draft pick compensation changed over the winter. Rather than having Type A and Type B free agents, depending on their ranking by the Elias Sports Bureau, a team will only be able to receive compensation for a free agent if they make their former player an offer at least equal to the average of the 125 richest contracts. Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLB Trade Rumors estimates that the qualifying offers to fall in the £12-13MM range. This is another section of the new CBA that hinders the Pirates, as they will not be able to make many, if any, qualifying offers, and certainly not any to a closer, whereas richer teams may feel that it’s a risk worth taking.
This new rule will affect the market with most players in the final year of their deals – a handful of players would be worth qualifying offers but it would me a risky strategy to attempt to gain draft pick compensation on players who really were not worth the price tag (like with the amateur draft, I hope that draft pick compensation is reviewed with the next CBA – it’s not the principle that is the issue, I would just like to see a tiered system like Type A and Type B free agents, giving small market teams a better opportunity to receive compensatory draft picks as they are more likely to make lower qualifying offers). Teams were more willing to give up better prospects under the old system as they had the knowledge that they would receive a compensatory draft pick (or picks) if they were unable to re-sign the player. Given that the number of players that could receive draft pick compensation will reduce, I believe that the potential prospect haul that a team could receive will also be reduced if the player is in the final year of his contract. With a year and a half to go prior to hitting free agency, the potential return for Hanrahan will dwindle if he’s not moved this summer. That, combined with a likely $7.5MM salary through arbitration, which is really too high for the Pirates to be spending on a reliever, means that the optimal time to trade Hanrahan would be now, regardless of the record – especially when the Pirates already have potential replacements in-house to take over the closers role.
Trading away an important member of the roster may not be popular and is counter to aiming for a winning record; however it is something that should be considered. Hanrahan is one of the more valuable and tradable players on the roster right now (his value is boosted due to being a proven closer) as the Pirates do have alternatives in the bullpen to close out games. As a small market team, holding onto Hanrahan will hurt in the long run, as the Pirates could eventually receive nothing for him. If the front office makes similar acquisitions to last year, when Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick were acquired for very little in terms of prospects, a Hanrahan trade would allow the team to improve the system while the trades that were made would improve the team overall. If they decide to be more aggressive this year (which I believe that they should), then a Hanrahan trade could replace departed prospects or even be used to acquire other players. Nonetheless, whichever approach that Pirates management takes to acquiring players prior to the trade deadline this summer, I hope that further consideration is given to moving Hanrahan so that the Bucs can receive maximum value for their closer.
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