With the eighth pick of the 2012 Rule 4 draft the Pittsburgh Pirates selected Stanford right handed pitcher Mark Appel. There will be lot of focus on Appel, given that he was the team's first pick, that he fell to the Pirates when he was expected to go much higher in the draft and the presence of Scott Boras.
No mock drafts had Appel going to the Pirates, as nobody expected him to be available at that point. ESPN’s Jim Bowden even reported that Appel would be taken first by the Astros on Sunday. There were rumours of the Pirates taking high school outfielder David Dahl prior to the draft, but management simply opted to select the best available prospect at that point. The focus now turns to whether the front office will be able to sign Appel prior to the 5pm deadline on July 13th.
As a junior this year, Appel does have a little leverage as he could simply head back to Stanford and enter the 2013 draft; however next year he would enter a much deeper draft as a college senior, with no leverage and the same CBA draft rules. There were talks of teams being put off by bonus demands last night causing Appel to fall to the Pirates; nonetheless I have to believe that this was mainly due to Scott Boras being his “advisor”. Furthermore, to get significantly more than the $2.9m that is recommended for the eighth pick, Appel would have to go in the top four picks. It would also push his professional development back a year.
What was seemingly often forgotten by agents in past years was that by waiting until the deadline to sign with a club the player often lost a season’s worth of development. Trevor Bauer signed early with the Diamondbacks last year and he is now on the cusp of pitching in the majors, whereas Gerrit Cole waited until the deadline and is currently pitching in High-A Bradenton and will likely make his major league debut next year. What this means is that Bauer will likely become arbitration eligible and accrue enough service time to become a free agent a year before Cole will. Cole did receive a higher bonus, but in terms of negotiations with the Pirates last year I doubt that there was much of a difference between the Pirates opening offer and what he received. The new July signing deadline gives players a chance to begin their professional careers early this year and if Appel does sign he will likely make a few appearances at Bradenton and then the Arizona Fall League this year, with a possible view to beginning next season at Double-A. For the sake of a possible higher signing bonus, putting his development (and therefore free agency) back a year barely seems worth it for Appel and Boras, especially when the player could easily fall further in the draft next year than he did this year.
What gives the Pirates further leverage is that if Appel does not sign they will receive the ninth overall pick in next year’s draft as compensation. Furthermore, unlike previous years this pick is protected – so if the Pirates failed to sign that selection then they would receive a further compensation pick in 2014, meaning that they would not have to select a player that would be easy to sign. So when considering all of the above, I doubt that the Pirates will feel the need to go above their draft budget to sign Appel, especially to the extent to lose a draft pick next year due to the CBA draft penalties. At the same time, they may go slightly above the slot recommendation – though that would also require the Pirates to sign Texas Tech outfielder Barrett Barnes (selected 45th overall in the draft) and other players to below slot recommendation – but I doubt that bonus demand concerns that were rumoured during the draft will prove to be a huge issue. Nonetheless, if Boras wanted Appel to go to a team who would like to find a loophole in the CBA's new draft rules as much as he did, I'd expect that the Pirates would have been at the top of his list.
As a junior this year, Appel does have a little leverage as he could simply head back to Stanford and enter the 2013 draft; however next year he would enter a much deeper draft as a college senior, with no leverage and the same CBA draft rules. There were talks of teams being put off by bonus demands last night causing Appel to fall to the Pirates; nonetheless I have to believe that this was mainly due to Scott Boras being his “advisor”. Furthermore, to get significantly more than the $2.9m that is recommended for the eighth pick, Appel would have to go in the top four picks. It would also push his professional development back a year.
What was seemingly often forgotten by agents in past years was that by waiting until the deadline to sign with a club the player often lost a season’s worth of development. Trevor Bauer signed early with the Diamondbacks last year and he is now on the cusp of pitching in the majors, whereas Gerrit Cole waited until the deadline and is currently pitching in High-A Bradenton and will likely make his major league debut next year. What this means is that Bauer will likely become arbitration eligible and accrue enough service time to become a free agent a year before Cole will. Cole did receive a higher bonus, but in terms of negotiations with the Pirates last year I doubt that there was much of a difference between the Pirates opening offer and what he received. The new July signing deadline gives players a chance to begin their professional careers early this year and if Appel does sign he will likely make a few appearances at Bradenton and then the Arizona Fall League this year, with a possible view to beginning next season at Double-A. For the sake of a possible higher signing bonus, putting his development (and therefore free agency) back a year barely seems worth it for Appel and Boras, especially when the player could easily fall further in the draft next year than he did this year.
What gives the Pirates further leverage is that if Appel does not sign they will receive the ninth overall pick in next year’s draft as compensation. Furthermore, unlike previous years this pick is protected – so if the Pirates failed to sign that selection then they would receive a further compensation pick in 2014, meaning that they would not have to select a player that would be easy to sign. So when considering all of the above, I doubt that the Pirates will feel the need to go above their draft budget to sign Appel, especially to the extent to lose a draft pick next year due to the CBA draft penalties. At the same time, they may go slightly above the slot recommendation – though that would also require the Pirates to sign Texas Tech outfielder Barrett Barnes (selected 45th overall in the draft) and other players to below slot recommendation – but I doubt that bonus demand concerns that were rumoured during the draft will prove to be a huge issue. Nonetheless, if Boras wanted Appel to go to a team who would like to find a loophole in the CBA's new draft rules as much as he did, I'd expect that the Pirates would have been at the top of his list.
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