Kevin Correia: Baseball's Luckiest Pitcher

Kevin Correia has been heavily dependent on the defense behind him and on injuries to other pitchers to enable him to remain as part of one of the best rotations in baseball so far this season. His luck, however, will eventually run out – both on and off the field.
 

Correia has been one of baseball’s luckiest pitchers in 2012. He has a 4.19 ERA in 10 starts, covering 58 innings, despite giving up more earned runs (27) than he has struck out hitters (20 Ks). The low ERA is largely due to a .223 BABIP and slightly above average 74.5 LOB%, as advanced metrics suggest that his ERA should be above 5 (5.44 FIP, 5.07 SIERA) and he's been worth 0.3 wins below replacement level (according to fWAR). Only Brandon Beachy and Hector Noesi have lower BABIP among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched, but both have struck out more hitters and Noesi has been especially unlucky with men on base (60.6 LOB%). 

 

Looking at Correia’s career numbers, he certainly appears to be a pitcher in decline. Correia has managed to reduce his walk rate over his career while generating just enough strikeouts to get by, however his best years (2006-2007, 2009) were the only years where he managed to keep his home run rates below one per nine innings (0.65 HR/9 in 2006, 0.80 HR/9 in 2007, 0.77 HR/9 in 2009) - every other year he's had a FIP above 4.50. However, his strikeout rate is now moving in the direction of his walk rate - which has resulted in an increased FIP:

The telling factor is his decline is the reduction in strikeouts, to the point that his FIP is now higher than his strikeout rate. His strikeout rate has dropped rapidly over the past two years, mainly because hitters are swinging-and-missing much less:

Season	O-Swing%	O-Contact%	SwStr%
2009	22.4%	57.1%	7.9%
2010	27.2%	70.0%	7.6%
2011	30.9%	79.0%	5.7%
2012	32.8%	85.2%	4.7%

There’s only a 3.4% zone contact difference between 2009 (89.7%) and 2012 (93.1%), however hitters have been swinging at more pitches outside the zone and making a lot more contact when they do. This has led to a declining swinging-strike percentage, resulting in less strikeouts and a higher FIP. Correia has also been unable to reduce the number of home runs given up (1.40 HR/9 as a Pirate), hence why the FIP has increased with the lack of strikeouts. Once luck catches up with him and the BABIP rises, it's probable that Correia's ERA could surpass his FIP this season, unless he can find a way to have less dependence on the defense behind him.

Luck on the field is not the only reason why Correia is still pitching for the Pirates - he has also been lucky off it. Correia has shown the value of rotation depth this year, due to his ability to remain healthy. He entered Spring Training as rotation depth and would have likely been designated for assignment if Charlie Morton and AJ Burnett were healthy to begin the year, or at least have been moved to the bullpen. He would certainly have lost his spot in the rotation once Morton and Burnett came off the disabled list; however Jeff Karstens then went down with a shoulder injury. Karstens is now near the end of his rehab and is set to return to Pittsburgh, yet a decision regarding Correia has been avoided again – this time due to Morton heading back to the DL with right elbow inflammation.

Correia certainly appears to be a pitcher on the decline, yet he steps on the mound for the Pirates tonight in what should possibly have been his final start for the Pirates for the third time this season. Unless he can find a way to reverse the trends that have been developing over the past few seasons Correia’s time in the rotation and with the Pirates may not last until Charlie Morton’s return, as the front office may elect to replace him with Brad Lincoln or Rudy Owens if Correia runs out of luck and begins to struggle.